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2020\u5e7411\u67083\u65e5\u306b\u884c\u308f\u308c\u308b\u30a2\u30e1\u30ea\u30ab\u5927\u7d71\u9818\u9078\u6319\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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https:\/\/fivethirtyeight.com\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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2016\u5e74\u30a2\u30e1\u30ea\u30ab\u5408\u8846\u56fd\u5927\u7d71\u9818\u9078\u6319\u306e\u524d\u65e5\u306b\u306f\u3001\u30d2\u30e9\u30ea\u30fc\u30fb\u30af\u30ea\u30f3\u30c8\u30f3\u6c0f\u304c71%\u306e\u78ba\u7387\u3067\u3001\u30c9\u30ca\u30eb\u30c9\u30fb\u30c8\u30e9\u30f3\u30d7\u6c0f\u304c29%\u306e\u78ba\u7387\u3067\u5927\u7d71\u9818\u306b\u306a\u308b\u3068\u4e88\u6e2c\u3002\u7d50\u679c\u3001\u5916\u3057\u3066\u3057\u307e\u3063\u3066\u3044\u308b\u304c\u3001\u4ed6\u306e\u4e3b\u8981\u306a\u4e88\u6e2c\u3067\u306f\u3001\u30d2\u30e9\u30ea\u30fc\u30fb\u30af\u30ea\u30f3\u30c8\u30f3\u6c0f\u306e\u5f53\u9078\u309285%-99%\u3068\u4e88\u6e2c\u3057\u3066\u3044\u305f\u3002\u76f8\u5bfe\u7684\u306b\u306f\u3088\u308a\u78ba\u7387\u3092\u6b63\u78ba\u306b\u6349\u3048\u3066\u3044\u305f\u3068\u3082\u3044\u3048\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\u73fe\u5728\u306eFiveThirtyEight\u306e\u96c6\u8a08\u306f\u3001\u30d0\u30a4\u30c7\u30f3\u6c0f\u304c50%\u3001\u30c8\u30e9\u30f3\u30d7\u5927\u7d71\u9818\u304c41%\u306a\u306e\u3067\u3001FiveThirtyEight\u306e\u307b\u3046\u304c\u30c8\u30e9\u30f3\u30d7\u6c0f\u5f53\u9078\u306e\u78ba\u7387\u30925\u30dd\u30a4\u30f3\u30c8\u307b\u3069\u4e0a\u306b\u898b\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3002\u306a\u304a\u3001FiveThirtyEight\u306e\u6570\u5b57\u306f\u3088\u308a\u30ea\u30a2\u30eb\u30bf\u30a4\u30e0\u6027\u304c\u3042\u308b\u306e\u3067\u3001\u8208\u5473\u6df1\u3044\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

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